“All the good form is around Carlton House. He was one of the best horses in the world when he arrived at Tulloch Lodge, and after a year of getting to know the lady trainer and the Aussie way, he is back to his best.
“Over this distance at Royal Ascot in 2012, Carlton House was beaten by So You Think, but held off Reliable Man for second. Reliable Man won this race last year.
“Carlton House is fit, he is thriving and he has run well on damp tracks before. This is the richest race in the history of NSW racing, and there is not a more deserving favourite.”
Obviously Gai Waterhouse is confident about his prospects in the $4 million Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
No doubt the equine expertise gained from her father, the legendary Tommy Smith, and the considerable horse sense subsequently gleaned by her has gone into the preparation of Carlton House, owned by her majesty, Queen Elizabeth.
However, I haven’t tipped him in the first four – not because the six-year-old isn’t a strong chance but the strength of the opposition, headed by It’s A Dundeel, Silent Achiever, Sacred Falls and Royal Descent.
Of course, they should handle the wet conditions but a query exists with the equal top rating Boban, despite the brilliant sunshine on Friday.
Still, the ground was a heavy eight and while it should dry out, traffic over the past two Saturdays has taken a toll and the rail is now out six metres.
Silent Achiever has the credentials.
“Beat a star-studded group I field last start in The BMW, finishing off the race with a devastating sprint, and no reason to think why she cannot repeat that effort against a similar field,” Tristan De Luca (Luxbet) said on the Racenet poll of leading betting houses.
Alas, the Queen Elizabeth isn’t a happy hunting ground for mares, and sorting the best of the Chris Waller team is difficult: Sacred Falls and Royal Descent fought out the finish of the Doncaster Mile last Saturday and should be strong at the finish.
So far this preparation It’s A Dundeel, dynamic on his day, has lacked a certain thrust, but is ready to produce his best, according to jockey James McDonald.
"What beats him, wins,” he predicted.
Hopefully McDonald is allowed to adapt to the pace and circumstances on Saturday and not be instructed to be so far back as he was in The BMW at Rosehill last start.
Verdict: It’s A Dundeel.
Catkins to pounce
Bookmakers will gamble against Catkins, the favourite in the Queen Of The Turf.
“Has had an outstanding preparation but everything has gone her way and this looks a race of high quality,” Blake Johnston (Unibet) stressed, making her the “lay”.
Perhaps Catkins (110) is rated behind stablemate Red Tracer (116) also prepared by Waller, but she has an edge in recent credentials.
Certainly three-year-old Solicit must be considered. Like Catkins, she is an up-front type.
Verdict: Catkins.
Lucky Lucia
The negative effect of bar plates will be tested by Zanbagh in the Australian Oaks.
Shod in that manner she was beaten 6.5 lengths by Lucia Valentina, her major rival on Saturday, in the Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) at Rosehill on April 5, but they have been replaced.
A filly of staying potential, Zanbagh should progress as will the New Zealander Rising Romance, but can they make up the necessary ground on Lucia Valentina?
Verdict: Lucia Valentina.
Value for money
Three-year-old Tupac Amaru is over the odds in the Sydney Cup, according to Betfair’s Dom Beirne, who has happy memories of the staying test from his bookmaking days.
“Myocard (a three-year-old) ran second (in 1987) at $1.60 carrying (probably) the biggest bet ever in the history of racing; $6.5 million to win $4 million.
“I remember it well because it was in my ledger on behalf of bookmaker Bruce McHugh, who held 90 per cent, and I held 10 per cent.”
Anyway, Beirne’s computer regards Tupac Amaru a $9 chance and he was $15 on Betfair on Friday.
The Offer, ridden by Tom Berry, is a worthy favourite. Berry, incidentally, is the highest rating jockey in staying races with Racing And Sports, even superior to Hugh Bowman and Nash Rawiller.
Verdict: Tupac Amaru.
Play the Randwick exotics:
Race 1: Careless 1, Veuvelicious 2, Cyclone 3, Standoubt 4.
Race 2: Woodbine 1, Engagement 2, Fast ’N’ Rocking 3, Spy Decoder 4.
Race 3: Clifton Red 1, Memorial 2, Amicus 3, Oakleigh Girl 4.
Race 4: Thump 1, Bounding 2 (best quinella), Sidestep 3, Safeguard 4.
Race 5: Catkins 1 (parlay), Solicit 2, Viadana 3, Red Tracer 4.
Race 6: Lucia Valentina 1 (parlay), Rising Romance 2, Zanbagh 3, Interspersed 4.
Race 7: Tupac Amaru 1 (parlay), The Offer 2, Brigantin 3 (best box trifecta), Tremec 4.
Race 8: It’s A Dundeel 1 (parlay), Silent Achiever 2, Sacred Falls 3, Royal Descent 4.
Race 9: Plucky Belle 1, Avoid Lightning 2, Villa Splendido 3, Aerobatics 4.
Quaddie: Race 6 – 2, 3, Race 7 – 4, 7, Race 8 – 2, 3, 10, Race 9 – 2, 5, 10.
