If Collingwood was playing this weekend, we wouldn't be having this conversation. If the Magpies were picking at 11, 12 or 13 in this year's draft there still wouldn't be much point. Darcy Moore would be wearing a black and white polo shirt in two weeks, and the club would rightly believe it had gotten a good deal.
The situation isn't quite so simple now. Not since the Pies ran out of puff, leaving list manager Derek Hine with pick 8, and even though Moore took a spectacular mark playing in a TAC Cup preliminary final on Saturday afternoon. A photo of the grab was doing laps of Twitter by that night, and it alone will have supporters wondering whether Hine has lost the plot should he pass on the tall, athletic and occasionally very high-leaping forward at the bidding, which takes place before trading starts. Even if they have never seen him kick a ball, or watched enough of the rest of this year's group to know where he truly slots in.
Could the Pies pass? Instinct says no, that it's impossible to imagine. But a look over the draft pool and what lies ahead in the trade period suggests there is some chance Collingwood won't match a bid from the top seven clubs, and some chance they will get Moore with their second selection. A slight chance, but a definite one.
Moore was widely viewed as one of the most promising few players in the draft – at the start of the season. He would have spent a bit of time hovering around No. 1 on many clubs' boards. He still is in the top group, but that group has expanded in the past six months, even though not many of this year's likely early picks have put together very consistent seasons.
Christian Petracca has, proving himself as a strong, explosive midfielder. So has Angus Brayshaw, a bull. Paddy McCartin's year has been interrupted by soft tissue problems and it wasn't until a few weeks ago that Peter Wright did all the jaw-dropping things his 200 centimetres can do in the one game. But neither would look out of place at No. 1, given the position they play and the things they can do.
Jake Lever has been out of mind all year because he is on his way back from a knee reconstruction, but is a tough defender who could get picked very early. Paul Ahern, Jayden Laverde and Kyle Langford are among the others clubs could well have ranked very high. Eight seems about fair enough for Moore, and it's not often that clubs are able to access top-quality talls beyond the top handful of picks. His best bits have been as exciting as anyone's, but very few teenagers are able to piece together perfect seasons and he has things to work on like the rest of them.
Hine has a strong mind and no history of making big decisions based on sentiment. If he sees Moore in the top eight, he'll match the bid. If he doesn't, he won't reach for him, even if he is the son of a club great. And even if the mere thought of Moore tearing it up while wearing navy blue is a very unpleasant one for fans.
Whether the Pies will have to worry depends on whether other clubs bid, knowing they could well end up with Moore, and of course there is a chance Collingwood is trying to spook them in an effort to get him through to the second round. Some think that's what's going on. But, "if that's what he's doing, he's doing a good job," said one list manager. "I reckon it's for real. I don't think they're 100 per cent sold on using pick 8."
Melbourne could bid, especially if the Demons believe they will score a second top-five pick for free agent James Frawley, but the Bulldogs and Blues seem the most obvious options, as clubs that really do need tall players able to either smother opponents with their long arms and closing speed while playing in defence, or take marks at the other end.
The Bulldogs have already done some work, and the Blues are stepping their research up. The Saturday game, in which Moore either a) kicked three goals, used the ball nicely and helped get his Oakleigh Chargers side into the grand final or b) should have won more than his dozen possessions, given how much time and space his team had, gave them more to think about.
But the Bulldogs have a father-son pick of their own, Zaine Cordy, to draft in this year. He's a defender, which means they might want to play things carefully and keep their first pick safe for an onballer. If the Blues plan on a busy trade period, they might not want to risk their first choice either.
As it stands, Collingwood has committed to Moore in that they will nominate him as a father-son selection, without promising to use a certain pick. Brisbane Lions and Melbourne have done the same thing with Josh Clayton and Billy Stretch, because you'd be silly to promise more under the current system, and Moore is an intelligent young man who will understand exactly how these things work.
Gut feel? That someone will bid, that the Magpies will match it. That they can't let him get past them, and that Moore will be wearing black and white for a while. But it's not the fait accompli it seemed to be a few months ago and Collingwood is not likely to give anything away, which means this year's bidding meeting shapes as one of the most intriguing yet.
