Gladys Berejiklian was huddled with some of her closest confidantes in her government office at Governor Macquarie Tower facing the biggest decision of her career.
It was April 2014 and the NSW public was in shock after Barry O'Farrell's resignation as Premier over his false evidence at the Independent Commission Against Corruption.
Berejiklian, then transport minister, had been hitting the phones to her Liberal colleagues and was confident she had the numbers to become the 44th Premier of NSW.
But there was a problem. It was the slimmest of majorities and the party's right wing was wary of the rise of Berejiklian, a leading light in the rival left faction and O'Farrell's preferred successor.
Some right wing MPs were backing the ambitious then Treasurer Mike Baird for the job.
The party faced a divisive internal battle to appoint its next leader – precisely the message it did not want to send to the public amid the turmoil of O'Farrell's demise.
Subjugating her own ambition, Berejiklian chose to form a unity ticket with Baird, agreeing to become deputy Liberal leader, helping to deliver him the leadership.
The decision was widely viewed as Berejiklian getting a case of cold feet in the face of possible attacks from the Liberal right. But supporters argue otherwise.
"Instead of running herself, she put the interests of the party and the state first," a source close to Berejiklian on that day told Fairfax Media.
There was no such wavering on Thursday when within hours of Baird's announcement that he was retiring from politics, Berejiklian, 46, was first out of the blocks to announce her candidacy.
She is set to be elected Liberal leader and therefore Premier at a party meeting on Monday, thanks to a deal between the left and right factions, cut with lightning speed.
The deal will see the right's Dominic Perrottet – currently finance minister – elected deputy Liberal leader. As such he is able to choose his own portfolio and at 33 is set to become NSW's next Treasurer.
Supporters of Berejiklian say the efficiency with which the deal was struck reflected her approach in 2014.
"How she played it last time has effective how the right [faction] played it this time," one said.
Those who know her well believe the episode says a lot about Berejiklian's approach to politics: pragmatic, cautious and intensely loyal to the Liberal party.
"She's highly intelligent, absolutely thorough, approaches everything having done her homework," says her close friend Patricia Forsythe, a former NSW Liberal MLC and now executive director of the Sydney Business Chamber.
"Whether it's her electorate or her portfolios she's absolutely focused on the task at hand."
The task facing Berejiklian once she is elected, as expected, at Monday's party room meeting and then sworn in as Premier, is significant.
She inherits leadership of a government slipping in the polls after six years in power desperate to rebrand itself before the next state election in March 2019.
She will need to preside over a complex reshuffle that was already causing headaches for Baird.
And – as evidenced by early sniping by former Prime Minister Tony Abbott and an attack from broadcaster Alan Jones – she will need to navigate the increasingly dangerous shoals of NSW Liberal party internal politics.
One obvious question facing Berejiklian is whether to continue the frenetic pace her predecessor set or to embark on efforts to pacify sections of the community put offside by the pace of change.
Baird was feeling battered by criticism of the impact of forced council amalgamations, the WestConnex motorway and light rail projects, his controversial overhaul of the ICAC and lingering anger of his botched attempt to ban greyhound racing.
Announcing his resignation, he tied it to the need for the government to "refresh" before 2019 and pitch a new agenda to voters.
The reset strategy would seem to sit comfortably with Berejiklian as leader who is regarded as a cautious but astute politician more in the O'Farrell mould.
"She's a cautious person but always open to ideas and to some extent will be her own person," suggests one close friend.
"She's capable of reform, but she's not a risk taker."
Perhaps reflecting this caution, during a media conference on Friday Berejiklian would not be drawn on her vision for NSW before her election is confirmed.
There are already demands from community groups for her to jettison some of Baird's more unpopular policies such as WestConnex and council reform.
In a possible signal of movement on amalgamations, Nationals leader John Barilaro announced he would push to halt any more mergers in regional NSW.
Apart from possibly provoking tension within the Coalition, the move also backed up Barilaro's assertion shortly after Baird's resignation that the Nationals will be newly assertive under his leadership.
Some who know her suggest Berejiklian's natural caution may be well-matched to Perrottet's reformist zeal.
Perrottet, a leading conservative voice within the NSW Liberals, is an avowed libertarian and a passionate believer in small government.
In contrast to Berejiklian's belief in human-induced climate change and support for same sex marriage, Perrottet – who attended Redfield College in Dural, a Catholic boys school established by teachers and parents who belong to the conservative Opus Dei organisation – has questioned the level of Australia's spending on climate change relative to the results and opposes amending the Marriage Act.
That said, it is also being noted that Perrottet and Berejiklian have worked well together as finance minister and Treasurer and enjoy a close relationship.
One view is that Perrottet could be good for Berejiklian by driving her reform ideas, as well as his own.
Late last year Perrottet advocated axing stamp duty in favour of a broad based land tax on all property – a policy Berejiklian has baulked at as Treasurer.
When she comes to reshuffle her cabinet, Berejiklian will be faced with similar challenges as Baird: the need for renewal and the difficult decisions that entails.
The deal with the right faction further complicates the delicate balance she will need to strike in order to avoid additional byelections should the likes of health minister Jillian Skinner or community services minister Brad Hazzard be dumped.
Berejiklian has also made a point of being a champion for the advancement of women within the NSW Liberal party. Any move to axe women from the ministry or failure to increase their numbers could be viewed as inconsistent with that.
Despite the factional deal that will see her elected leader, Berejiklian remains a key target of hard right elements of the Liberal party as a leading left winger.
In particular, Berejiklian is regarded as an opponent of the simmering issue that threatens to provoke all-out war in the NSW division – moving to a plebiscite or model for state and federal candidate selections where all local branch members vote.
Baird was a supporter of the model and cut a deal with prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and elements of the party executive to hold a convention to decide the issue this year.
Abbott and Jones – both conservative Liberals – have railed against the influence on the party of the dominant left and centre right factions and their key powerbrokers, lobbyist Michael Photios and federal MP Alex Hawke, who oppose the reform.
According to The Australian, following Baird's resignation and amid anticipation of Berejiklian's election Abbott said the pathway to plebiscite reform would be further at risk if Photios strengthened his grip on the NSW Liberals.
Jones – phoning in from holidays to his own 2GB breakfast program – attacked Berejiklian as "a bad choice" and accused her of not being across the issues of local government mergers and lockout laws "in a million light years".
"Before [Mr Baird's] announcement was made, the Gladys Berejiklian forces were already ringing up and doing deals so that this would all be a fait accompli," Jones said.
"It's all being stitched up. The public won't cop it. There is no democracy."
Last year, shortly before the NSW Liberal state council meeting at which the plebiscite issue was to be debated, former federal MP Ross Cameron launched a very public broadside at Berejiklian.
Somewhat presciently, Cameron accused her of sabotaging the prospects of reform because she was either committed to "authoritarian rule" inside the Liberals or manoeuvring to replace Baird as premier.
Cameron faces having his Liberal party membership suspended for up to five years for breaching party rules forbidden comment on party issues in the media.
She might win that skirmish, but the signs have already emerged that Berejiklian can expect to be further accused of being the servant of factional warlords within her party.
On Friday Labor leader Luke Foley took aim at what he called "the fix" that will deliver her the leadership.
"The powerbrokers and lobbyists who pull the strings in the NSW Liberal party have decided Gladys Berejiklian will be their Premier, no one else need apply," he said.
The attack was reminiscent of the Coalition's attack on the first female NSW Premier, Labor's Kristina Keneally, who was accused of being the "puppet" of powerbrokers Eddie Obeid and Joe Tripodi.
The insult stuck with Keneally throughout her brief tenure, which ended in comprehensive election defeat.
From Monday, Berejiklian's supporters will be doing their utmost to ensure her career follows an entirely different script.
