Difficult negotiations with the Senate crossbench are emerging as the Turnbull government's only chance of passing its imminent energy package after Labor declared a bipartisan deal was dead without a clean energy target.
The government needs backing from 10 other senators to pass the long-awaited energy policy, which is due to be discussed at Tuesday's Coalition party room meeting in Canberra.
The government has hinted the measures will focus on energy reliability and affordability as well as cutting emissions, and will bypass a clean energy target - the key recommendation of a review by Australia's chief scientist Alan Finkel.
Senator Jacqui Lambie on Monday dealt a blow to the government's chances of securing her vote, telling Fairfax Media the government's abandonment of the prospect of a clean energy target leaves her home state of Tasmania "high and dry".
"Without the certainty and the bipartisanship a clean energy target was going to provide, the industry has no idea what the market is going to look like and Hydro Tasmania won't be able to invest in expanding production, eventually exporting more energy to the mainland," she said.
Senator Nick Xenophon on Monday said an emissions intensity scheme - a measure the government has ruled out - was his "first choice" on energy policy, casting doubt on whether the government will win his party's three Senate votes.
"The government knows my views in terms of of what needs to be done," Senator Xenophon said.
"[An emissions intensity scheme] is the most cost effective way of reducing carbon pollution, of meeting our Paris agreement targets and at the same time not impacting on energy prices to the same extent as alternative schemes."
Senator Xenophon said he will wait to see the proposed package before making a decision, as did Justice Party senator Derryn Hinch and Australian Conservatives senator Cory Bernardi, a climate sceptic.
Liberal Democrats senator David Leyonhjelm said a clean energy target risked driving up energy prices by making baseload power too expensive.
"The federal government should be the guardian of competition in the energy sphere, allowing the private sector to figure out which sources of energy and which technologies will satisfy the most customers at the best price," he said.
One Nation did not respond to request for comment. Any sidestepping of a clean energy target will bolster the government's hopes of winning support from the far-right party's four senators, who reportedly do not support the measure.
Labor's climate change and energy spokesman Mark Butler on Sunday said his party would not support an energy package that did not contain a clean energy target.
On Monday he called on the Coalition to "support the broad coalition of support that exists for the clean energy target and come up with something sensible tomorrow".
"There are two paths for Malcolm Turnbull: Tony Abbott's path or the path urged on him by pretty much everyone else in the community," he said.
The government's expected failure to reach a deal with Labor will come as blow to business and industry, who want a solution to the energy policy roundabout and say bipartisanship will provide much-needed investment certainty.
Greens climate change and energy spokesman Adam Bandt all but shut the door to negotiations with the government, saying its energy policy is "clearly being written by Tony Abbott".
The best chance for climate action was to "get rid of this woeful government and then make the next one legislate meaningful pollution cuts," he said.
Independent senator Lucy Gichuhi did not respond to inquiries.
Seven MPs to watch once the government announces its energy policy
- Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull
Mr Turnbull wants to put the vexatious issue of energy policy to bed during this session of Parliament. He has previously said the prospect of a clean energy target has merit. But having once lost the Liberal leadership over climate policy, Mr Turnbull is now walking a more cautious path to placate his party's coal-loving ultra-right - inviting accusations that he has lost his spine on climate policy.
- Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg
The up-and-coming minister is under intense pressure to deliver policy that ensures a reliable, affordable electricity supply while meeting Australia's global obligations to cut emissions - while also managing the competing priorities of a sharply divided party room.
- Former prime minister Tony Abbott
As prime minister, Mr Abbott backed the Paris climate agreement and established the Renewable Energy Target. But the renowned climate change-denier has let his true colours show as a backbencher, and his constant interventions in the energy debate have been a thorn in the side of Mr Turnbull.
- Liberal MP Craig Kelly
The climate sceptic is also head of the Coalition's backbench environment and energy committee, which advises the government on legislation and policy. On Monday he said subsidising renewable energy "deters investment into ... baseload generators," such as coal and gas, leading to closure of power stations such as Liddell.
- Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce
The federal Nationals conference last month passed motions calling for renewable energy subsidies to be scrapped, and opposing the prospect of a clean energy target. Mr Joyce on Monday declared "we believe in coal-fired power", but has also said Australia must comply with its international obligations to cut emissions.
- Foreign Minister Julie Bishop
The woman who will bear the brunt of international condemnation if Australia backtracks on its international climate change obligations, Ms Bishop says the government is committed to the Paris climate deal.
- Opposition Leader Bill Shorten
Labor has framed the government's imminent energy announcement as a "profound test" for Mr Turnbull's leadership. Despite calling for an emissions intensity scheme, Mr Shorten's opposition was willing to back a clean energy target, and will not support the government's energy package without it.
