Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, centre and Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe at Narashino Exercise Area east of Tokyo on Thursday. Photo: AP
On Thursday afternoon in New Delhi, four admirals sat on stage together at a top security conference. Routine as that sounds, it prompted Australian defence scholar Rory Medcalf to live tweet from the audience that he was watching "history being made".
The admirals hailed from Australia, the US, Japan and India - the so-called "quad" of democracies for whom just sitting together can send Beijing into paroxysms because it sees their co-operation as an effort to contain China's expansion.
Among them were Australian navy chief Tim Barrett and the redoubtable US Pacific commander Harry Harris. Known for his strong language on China, Harris did not disappoint.
"The reality is that China is a disruptive transitional force in the Indo-Pacific. They are the owner of the trust deficit that we all have spent the last hour or so talking about," Harris told the Raisina Dialogue.
That four men in uniform sitting together can generate such excitement is a signal of the times. At the same moment, Malcolm Turnbull was wrapping up a visit to Tokyo, his first overseas trip of the year. Defence Industry Minister Christopher Pyne had just spent two days in Delhi where he attended the same dialogue and separately told the National Defence College that India would in future be at the centre of Australia's thoughts rather than the periphery - reciprocating a sentiment Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed in 2015.
China's expansion, its seizure of the South China Sea and now its maritime spread into the Indian Ocean, is prodding these democracies to reach out, if cautiously and fumblingly, towards one another. What is emerging may not be the formation of an Asian NATO as the more touchy Chinese commentators claim, but a coalescence by centripetal force of countries looking to find strength in numbers, especially with the US less able to bear so much of the burden on its own.
Time will show exactly how this new grouping takes shape, but there is now "a remarkable degree of alacrity now being demonstrated by Turnbull, by [Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo] Abe and Modi, in trying to form some degree of coherent policy", according to Amitabh Mattoo, a leading Indian strategic thinker.
Turnbull and Abe announced the first joint exercise involving Japanese and Royal Australian Air Force fighter jets would be held in Japan this year. The countries' defence ministers were directed to "pursue even deeper and broader defence co-operation in 2018, including exercises, operations, capacity building, navy, army and air force visits, and further co-operation on defence equipment, science and technology".
A visiting forces agreement, which would make it easier to bring military equipment onto each other's soil during training exercises, would be finalised "as early as feasible", they said. A deal struck in September will smooth logistics support for training and peacekeeping operations.
Abe told a meeting of Japan's National Security Council, attended by Turnbull, that Japan and Australia "share fundamental values, including freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law", drawing an apparent contrast to authoritarian China.
In New Delhi, meanwhile, Pyne confirmed India would join Australia's Pitch Black air force exercise for the first time this year.
"I feel that the relationship with India has been underdone and yet the Indian Ocean is a huge part of our bigger strategic concerns," Pyne told Fairfax Media. "It is as important to us as the Pacific Ocean and the South Pacific, so I think you'll see a great deal more interest in ministers travelling to India and meeting with their counterparts in future than you have in the last couple of decades."
Mattoo said he had never seen so much "buzz" around the relationship as he does now. He will co-chair next week's Australia India Leadership Dialogue, which will be attended by Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce and Labor's foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong and treasury spokesman Chris Bowen.
???Japan is worried about China's efforts to put its stamp on the East China Sea where Japan holds island territory, while India is concerned by China's expansion into the Indian Ocean. Beijing has established a naval port in Djibouti on the eastern coast of Africa and reportedly is building another in Pakistan - India's arch-rival.
These countries are regarded as natural partners for Australia, because as Turnbull, Pyne and their counterparts repeatedly said, they are democracies that support the rule of law and a rules-based system.
Japan is the keenest. India has traditionally been more reluctant. A potential fifth partner Indonesia - whose former deputy foreign minister and ambassador to the US Dino Patti Djalal joined the four admirals on stage in New Delhi - is also hesitant.
The appearance of the admirals together - which Rory Medcalf, the head of the Australian National University's national security college described as " highly symbolic and carefully stage-managed" - followed the first four-way meeting by officials in Manila in November on the sidelines of an ASEAN summit.
When the quad was first tried last decade, Australia under Kevin Rudd became squeamish and abruptly pulled back. India felt burnt and the whole thing was shelved for years.
But the fact it is evolving cautiously this time suggests it will be sustainable, Medcalf said. India's decision to host this public conversation between the four admirals "indicates its own growing confidence in dealing with a powerful China".
"This is not some rush into an Asian NATO and nor is it something the four democracies should feel embarrassed about," Medcalf said. "Chinese assertiveness is driving a wide range of countries in the Indo-Pacific and beyond to swap notes about their strategic concerns."
Notably, Turnbull and Abe made no reference to the quad. Pyne said he did not discuss it with his counterpart Nirmala Sitharaman when they met last week, though he said it was a hot topic of conversation with most other people he spoke with.
Pyne said Australia would work to "develop it into something of use to all four countries while ensuring of course it's not seen by anyone in the Asia-Pacific region as being any kind of attempt to limit their activities".
Also conspicuous was Turnbull's careful language. In Japan, he went out of his way to praise China's efforts on North Korea and even spoke positively about the South China Sea, saying he was "more optimistic" the issues there would be solved and acknowledged "real progress" as China negotiated a code of maritime conduct with south-east Asian nations.
On the eve of Turnbull's visit, Chinese media questioned whether it was the precursor to a military alliance to contain China, and warned against Australia forming an "iron triangle" with the US and Japan.
Given the visit coincides with a series of diplomatic spats between Canberra and Beijing, Australia was treading carefully in the signals it sends to its largest trading partner.
Mattoo said Turnbull's approach was perfectly sensible. There was no logic, he said, in poking China in the eye with words when actions were already speaking loudly.
With no rule book, countries are genuinely hedging as they figure their way through this and decide what is best for them.
"What you're going to witness within what you might call this twilight zone or this transitional period is ??? different countries will use different ways of hedging," he said. "Each country recognises that your bilateral relationship with China can't be sacrificed on the promise of a collective arrangement which has not worked with the same kind of co-ordination and coherence in the past."
Yet structurally, these countries have little choice but to look to each other. Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, a respected security commentator who writes for the Hindustan Times and has sat on various government advisory councils, said Indian suspicion of Australia's commitment had lingered for a long time since Rudd pulled out of the quad last time.
Chaudhuri added that New Delhi was still watching closely to see what Labor's policy would be.
Wong told Fairfax Media the quad "should take account of the important role that other countries play in regional security affairs".
"Labor will certainly examine all proposals that serve the security interests of Australia and will co-operate with any and all countries that share our objectives to enhance the stability, security and prosperity of the region," she said.
Chaudhuri said doubts about Australia, along with India's historical policy of non-alignment meant the country had been reluctant. But with China reaching into the Indian Ocean, India needed friends.
When US Defence Secretary James Mattis visited India last year, he made it clear the US could not take responsibility for the Indian Ocean and asked New Delhi to step up, offering any necessary help in terms of military technology, Chaudhuri said.
India realised it must have help from countries such as Australia, Chaudhuri said.
"Australia is the fourth or fifth largest military power in Asia and it is an Indian Ocean power ??? You can't really do an Indian Ocean strategy that doesn't include Australia. That's one of the reasons Australia has become much more important to us," he said.
Mattoo agreed. India saw Australia for a long time as a junior sheriff to the US, he said. But it now regarded Australia as an important middle power on the Indian Ocean rim and a key player in any effort to maintain balance and stability in Asia.
Pyne said this was also in Australia's interests. It had "a big stake" in the Indian Ocean, given the importance of trade routes through the waters.
The language the Australian government uses will remain careful, but it is clear that new bonds are being cemented based on shared values but also shared needs.
